By Middle East Eye
Adam Lucente
A picture of Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stands in a traffic circle in the northern Iraqi town of Bartella. It is a prominent symbol of Shia Islam in a town that has been historically inhabited by Syriac Catholic and Orthodox Christians. In recent years, the population of Shabak people - a heterodox minority who predominantly identify as Shia Muslims - has increased significantly in the town.
Similarly, in nearby Qaraqosh, flags commemorating Imam Hussein - who is revered by Shia Muslims - fly over the houses around the base of the Nineveh Plain Protection Units (NPU), a Christian paramilitary group.
Demographic changes in the town, which are perceived by some as forced, have led to frustration for many of the area's Christians and others.
"The problem is Sunnis have the Gulf, Shias have Iran, and the Christians have no one," John Hadaya, head of the Syriac Party, told Middle East Eye.
The Shabak presence in Bartella, Qaraqosh and other historically Christian towns significantly increased in the aftermath of the war with the Islamic State (IS) group, when expelled populations returned to their lands or moved from destroyed villages to larger towns.
Nineveh Plains residents disagree on whether demographic change occurring in the area is forced or not. The issue has pitted people who suffered at the hands of IS against each other. It has also highlighted disagreements over Iran and its militia allies' influence in Iraq.One Shabak activist spoke to MEE on condition of anonymity out of a fear of pro-Iran militias in the area. He said that Shabak left villages for towns due to poor living conditions in the former.
"The villages have no water, no schools," the activist told MEE. "Where could we live? We needed to be in city centres."
'A result, not a plan'
Both Bartella and Qaraqosh lie in the Nineveh Plains. The area is strategic for the powers in the Middle East. For Iran, it is a connecting area between Shia majority parts of Iraq and Iran's allies in Syria and Lebanon - plus the Mediterranean Sea.
The arable plains are also one of Iraq's official disputed territories claimed by both the autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal Iraqi government. IS controlled much of the Nineveh Plains between 2014 and 2017.
The Nineveh Plains showcase an incredible amount of religious and ethnic diversity. The area north of Mosul includes Kurdish, Turkmen, Arab and Yazidi communities, as well as Christian and Shabak.
During the reign of Iraq's President Saddam Hussein, Iraqi authorities forcibly expelled Nineveh Plains residents from their homes and moved Arabs from elsewhere in Iraq there in an "Arabisation" campaign. This also resulted in homes being sold to Arabs from other parts of the country.
Shabak people were among those made to leave their homes. The Iraqi government's perception that they were Kurds resulted in harsh home destructions and expulsions of Shabak, according to the Iraqi website Niqash.
Saddam persecuted Kurds in Iraq during and following the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. After the US invasion in 2003 that toppled Saddam, Islamic militant groups also attacked Shabak communities in Mosul.
The Hashd al-Shaabi or Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) - mostly, but not exclusively, Shia militias formed in 2014 to fight IS - played a crucial role in defeating IS, including in areas like the Nineveh Plains that are outside the Shia-majority parts of Iraq. Many PMF groups receive financial, military and political support from Iran.
The PMF presence is clear in Nineveh. The official checkpoint leading to the province from the KRG includes numerous PMF and Imam Hussein flags, as does the road to Bartella.
Graffiti with Shia religious expressions are visible on many of the numerous PMF checkpoints throughout the area. The PMF honours their soldiers who died fighting IS with posters of them carrying the word "martyr" lining the roads.
In the Nineveh Plains, Brigade 30 is one of the main PMF groups and its soldiers are mostly Shabak. Before the IS conflict, the Shabak community had no such military clout.
"After the liberation, Shabak had militias," the Shabak activist said.
Thousands of Christians fled the Nineveh Plains in advance of IS. Others were enslaved or killed. This prompted heavy emigration of Iraq's Christians from the country. The flight of Christians enabled Shabak to move to historically Christian towns, according to the activist.
"Many Christians left Iraq, so areas became Shabak and pictures of Imam Hussein appeared," he said.
The activist said this was not a plan, but a desire to live in areas with better conditions. He blamed the government for the situation.
"It was a result, not a plan. We just wanted water, services, schools for the children," he said. "If the government had given us land, we would've never left our areas."
Even since the areas were liberated from IS control, the Christian population has not returned in the same numbers. This is due to the destruction of homes and the lack of basic services, making the areas almost uninhabitable, while others found work in other regions.
Some Christian leaders in the area also note emigration as a reason the local Christian population has decreased.
"Christians left Iraq, and they accepted this because they had no sources from which to live," Isam Daaboul, the mayor of Hamdaniya, which includes Qaraqosh, told Middle East Eye.
The large size of Shabak families and their practice of polygamy is another contributing factor to their population increase in the Nineveh Plains vis-a-vis Christians.